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WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT AND THE U.S. DOLLAR
WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT AND THE U.S. DOLLAR

WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT AND THE U.S. DOLLAR

Will You Survive The Coming Financial Crash 24
© 2005 Kent Daniel Bentkowski

Regarding the U.S. trade deficit and the value of the U.S. dollar, Buffett had the following
to say:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/01/news/fortune500/buffett_talks/
Buffett: "That really is the $64,000 question. It seems to me that a $618 billion trade
deficit, rich as we are, strong as this country is, well, something will have to happen that
will change that. Most economists will still say some kind of soft landing is possible. I don't
know what a soft landing is exactly, in how the numbers come down softly from levels like
these . . ."

"There are more people [like hedge-fund managers] that go to bed at night with a hair
trigger than ever before, it's an electronic herd, they can give vent to decisions that move
billions and billions of dollars with the click of a key.

We will have some exogenous event,
we will have that
. There will be some kind of stampede by that herd . . ."
"When you have far greater sums than ever before, in one asset class after another, that
are held by people who operate on a hair-trigger mechanism, then they lend themselves
to more explosive outcomes. People with very short time horizons with huge sums of
money, they can all try to head for the exits at the same time.

The only way you can
leave your seat in burning financial markets is to find someone else to take your seat, and
that is not always easy

. . ."
Munger: "The present era has no comparable referent in the past history of capitalism.
We have a higher percentage of the intelligentsia engaged in buying and selling pieces of
paper and promoting trading activity than in any past era.

A lot of what I see now reminds
me of Sodom and Gomorrah. You get activity feeding on itself, envy, and imitation. It has
happened in the past that there came bad consequences

."
Buffett: "
I have no idea on timing
. It's far easier to tell what will happen than when it will
happen.
I would say that what is going on in terms of trade policy is going to have very
important consequences
."
Munger: "A great civilization will bear a lot of abuse, but there are dangers in the current
situation that threaten anyone who swings for the fences."

Buffett to Munger: "
What do you think the end will be
?"
Munger: "
Bad
."
Buffett: "We're like an incredibly rich family that owns so much land they can't travel to
the ends of their domain. And, they sit on the front porch and consume a little bit of
everything that comes in, all the riches of the land, and they consume roughly 6 percent
more than they produce. And, they pay for it by selling off land at the edge of the
landholdings that can't see. They trade away a little piece every day or take out a
mortgage on a piece."

"That scenario couldn't end well. And, we also keep consuming more than we produce. It
can go on a long time.

The world has demonstrated a diminishing enthusiasm for dollars
in the last few years as they get flooded with them --- every day there's $2 billion more


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